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For countries that are already marked by high levels of food insecurity, displacement and conflict, El Niño isn’t just a weather phenomenon. It is a force that is going to make living conditions worse than it already is. Lives, economy and safety are all at risk for some of the most vulnerable people.
What makes El Niño even more dangerous is that it doesn’t affect all nations the same way, so making precise planning requires people with local knowledge. Fortunately, Concern Worldwide has a dedicated staff in some of the most vulnerable regions, ready to assist in whatever way possible. Before we get into how Concern Worldwide is set to tackle El Niño, it is important to understand what exactly we are dealing with over here.
El Niño is a result of water surfaces warming due to wind patterns, which causes temperatures to skyrocket in parts of the world. While El Niño will potentially cause hot summers in Europe, communities in some of the world's most vulnerable countries in the Global South are going to be in a more precarious situation.
"In parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, we're concerned about below-normal rainfall during the June-to-September season and what that could mean for agriculture, livestock and water availability,” says Michael Mulpeter, Senior Climate Adaptation and DRR Advisor at Concern Worldwide. “In the Sahel, there are also concerns that below-normal rainfall could affect crops and pasture during an important agricultural season. In Southern Africa, we're looking further ahead to the 2026/27 growing season. We're also monitoring South Asia, where El Niño can influence monsoon rainfall and heat, and the Caribbean, including Haiti, where reduced rainfall and heat could affect agriculture and water availability. In the Middle East, the relationship with El Niño is less direct and consistent, so regional and national forecasts and other climate drivers are particularly important.”
Mulpeter also says that El Niño does not have the same impact everywhere and is a "warning signal" and not a prediction of events. Dealing with El Niño also becomes more difficult due to the presence of pre-existing conflicts, displacements, food insecurity, high prices and repeated climate shocks, which is seen in many of Concern Worldwide's programme countries.
El Niño can affect crops, livestock, water supplies, health and nutrition, housing, business, service, and the economics of a region. The affected and severe lack of crops will also cause prices of essential items to increase exponentially.
"We're working with country teams across Concern to understand what the evolving El Niño outlook could mean in their particular context, what preparedness is already in place and where additional support may be needed," says Mulpeter. He further explains: "In practice, anticipatory action can mean things like providing cash before a shock, protecting water supplies and livestock, supporting farmers with appropriate seeds and advice, or putting measures in place ahead of flooding. The exact response depends on the risks and the local context."
In Somalia, a staggering 6.5 million people are estimated to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity—IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above. Somalia is also vulnerable to floods, with the floods in 2023 affecting 2.5 million people and displaced 1.2 million. Drought, insecurity and conflict in central, southern, and some parts of northern Somalia have displaced populations and disrupted livelihood activities and market access. The situation is further compounded by reduced humanitarian assistance, with humanitarian food security assistance (HFSA) in January 2026 reaching only 17% of the 4.8 million people in need.
Areas like Afgoye, Baardheere, Belet Hawa, Dollow, Wanla Weyn, Baidoa, Hudur and Banadir have been identified as high-flood risk regions. Additionally, Concern Worldwide has identified that Luuq, El Wak, also requires high level of monitoring due to recent drought recovery challenges, food insecurity, displacement dynamics and potential flood exposure.
Concern Worldwide’s preparedness in Somalia includes measures to protect health facilities and schools located in flood-prone areas through asset protection, temporary relocation of critical materials where necessary, reinforcement of infrastructure and pre-positioning of essential supplies. Health preparedness measures also include expanded disease surveillance, outbreak readiness and nutritional screening programmes.
WASH-related interventions are also in place, focusing on maintaining access to safe water and sanitation services, reducing disease transmission risks, supporting drainage improvements and protecting water infrastructure from anticipated flood damage.
Somalia teams are working hand in hand with different national and international partners to scale response and preparedness up. The Somalia Cash Consortium (which is led by Concern) regularly coordinates with the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SODMA), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and the Anticipatory Action and Beyond Consortium (ABC) in order to identify most vulnerable priority locations and allocate resources to conduct household/group cash transfers, anticipatory action, and emergency response mechanisms.
At the same time, the Building Resilient Communities in Somalia Consortium (BRCiS, that we are a member of) is working with the Food and Agriculture Organization's Somalia Water and Land Information Management programme (FAO-SWALIM) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to refine flood scenarios, identify high-risk communities, and conduct community-level risk mapping through Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Sub-Committees, Community Resilience Committees, and Displacement-Affected Community Fora. The consortium is also supporting communities to strengthen flood defences and protect critical infrastructure, including water systems, irrigation networks, health facilities, and schools.
In countries where communities depend on agriculture for a living, Concern provides training to build resilience against the impacts of climate change. Yusuf Ali, a community leader of Juvagalile in Borama, Awdal region of Somaliland, explains that Concern Worldwide taught how to prepare the soil properly, how to manage water so it doesn’t disperse quickly, and how to plant in a way that increases yield to the community and even provided them with tools, seeds, and pesticides. “During this season the crops are usually ready to be harvested,” he explains. “But now they are just starting to grow.” Despite this, he believes the community is more prepared than ever. “Now we know how to store the wheat and the beans properly. If drought comes again, we are better prepared because of the training.”
In Tana River County, Kenya, an irrigation scheme was established, and community members were provided with ploughing, provision of certified seeds, and community training. Under the irrigation scheme, by constructing boreholes and equipping them with solar-powered pump, an elevated steel tower with a 50 cubic meter steel tank, and a reticulation and irrigation system for farming activities.
One community member, Yosia Mwewe explains: “We are now confident that we can farm year-round since water can reach every plant, unlike before when we depended entirely on rain." He added: “I learned a lot from the extension staff that Concern mobilised to train us during seed distribution. I can’t wait to use the same knowledge again to plant crops on my own this time."
According to Mulpeter, El Niño gives an advance warning and gives enough time to prepare. As forecasts become clearer, actions can be refined or scaled according to need. Whatever El Niño has in store for the future, Concern Worldwide is ready to act in the best way possible to meet the needs of communities.
