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There will not be a short road to peace — or recovery. Here’s what that means for the humanitarian situation in Ukraine.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military offensive against Ukraine, escalating a long-simmering crisis with devastating impact. Two years later, conditions have remained dire for millions, with 40% of the country’s population (14.6 million) requiring humanitarian assistance and nearly 6 million Ukrainians living as refugees in nearby countries across Europe. Here’s what you need to know about the Ukraine crisis from a humanitarian perspective in March 2024.
From a humanitarian perspective, the Ukraine crisis is largely a refugee crisis. In just the first few months of hostilities, Ukraine became one of the world’s largest refugee crises. For a time, it was second only to Syria. In early 2024, it’s now in third place, with over 5.8 million refugees as of January, 2024. This is more than 13% of the country’s population, and just under 20% of the world’s global refugee population. Many are living in temporary shelters in nearby countries (including Russia, Germany, and Poland) and now facing the decision of whether to hold out hope of returning home, or rebuilding their lives from scratch in exile.
One of the big challenges on top of this was a number of people who were living in Ukraine as refugees and asylum-seekers. At the end of 2021, the country was host to over 4,000 people displaced from Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Iraq (among other countries), who faced additional challenges in their attempts to leave the country at the onset of the conflict.
Additionally, millions of Ukrainians are internally displaced within their own country. The UN’s estimates vary at the beginning of 2024, but they place the number of internally-displaced Ukrainians somewhere between 3.68 million and 5.08 million. That’s a wide margin, but it also speaks to the flux of displacement within the second-largest country in Europe: Many Ukrainians travel between their homes close to the frontlines and their temporary residences, even if just temporarily, to take care of businesses, family members, and houses.
Living in displacement has forced the lives of millions of Ukrainians to be placed on hold. Everyone from young children to retirees is coping with the psychological effects of being forced to flee their homes with little more than a backpack or carry-on suitcase. Many experienced the horrors of war first-hand before they left. Many Ukrainians are living in collective centres (such as converted dormitories), which are not equipped to serve as long-term housing. This mass migration has also caused an economic crisis for many families, particularly those where people were on fixed pensions or had to give up jobs in order to move and have yet to find work that makes up for the lost income.
These emotional and financial aspects of displacement are key components of Concern’s response in Ukraine, which includes cash transfers and psychosocial support.
A leading agricultural exporter, Ukraine has (together with Russia) been described as “the breadbasket of Europe.” In 2021, the country’s spring crops covered 42 million acres — an area larger than the size of Austria and Czechia combined. One year later, production dropped by 22%. The European Council points out that this area of lost farmland is roughly equivalent to the size of Belgium.
This decline continued in 2023, with outputs dropping by 29%. Projections for 2024 indicate that this could be the worst harvest season for Ukraine since 2012. Given that 90% of Ukraine’s harvests are exported, and that more than half of those exports go to low-income countries in Africa and the Middle East, this is a significant loss. Further complicating matters is the fact that Ukraine’s port and sea routes have been blocked several times due to the conflict, meaning that what they are able to harvest isn’t always guaranteed to get out. This has led to shortages in countries that are already facing severe levels of hunger (like Somalia), and high rates of inflation on what is able to be exported.
After two years, the fighting in Ukraine has continued without rest. As of February 15, 2024, the United Nations has confirmed that over 10,500 civilians have been killed, and nearly 20,000 have been injured. On that same day, a new wave of attacks swept the country, and additional attacks took place earlier this month (between March 12 and 18).
Each of these waves of violence not only leads to loss of civilian life (including children). They also interrupt critical infrastructure and services at key times, amplifying the degree of suffering: Attacks in the winter leave thousands of Ukrainians without heat and electricity. They also affect education and healthcare systems, cutting off access to school for children and placing medical professionals and their patients in dire situations. Also under attack are water and wastewater infrastructures, which opens residents of affected areas up to greater chances of disease.
The knock-on effects of these attacks only grow worse over time. The longer the fighting continues, the harder it will be for civilians to cope. We’ve now seen multiple lost generations in Syria after 13 years of conflict has compromised the educations of millions. The effects of this will last their entire lives.
One of the biggest challenges of the last two years in Ukraine has been inflation, a direct result of the conflict. While many markets and shops have remained open and physical access to goods (especially food and other essentials) has more or less remained consistent, rising prices and lost incomes have made it harder to afford the basics.
This is especially true in rural areas, where roughly one-third of the country’s population lives. The UN’s 2023 Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) for Ukraine noted that this was a growing concern: “Food insecurity is no longer an isolated problem in the easternmost part of the country but, rather, is now a widespread phenomenon.” Healthcare costs are also another burden for many families who cannot afford the out-of-pocket expenses, especially for chronic illnesses. In the 2023 HNO, the UN reported that 32% of families reported at least one member had to stop taking their medications due to war. Over half of these family members were relying on these medications to manage cardiovascular and hypertension issues.
Since that Overview, conditions have improved somewhat: The National Bank of Ukraine lowered interest rates three times in 2023, a move that is designed to help the millions of Ukrainians who lost their incomes at the start of the war to regain their footing. However, the national annual inflation rate is expected to increase from 5% to 8.6% by the end of 2024, a burden that many Ukrainians will be hard-pressed to shoulder.
Following February 2022, Concern deployed a small emergency response team to Poland, Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania to conduct an initial assessment, working in tandem with local organisations, our Alliance2015 partners, and the UN. After working in some of these neighbouring host communities during the first weeks of the war, we moved inside Ukraine where we found the need to be greatest. We’ve been working across the country since then, in partnership with Czech NGO People in Need and French organisation Acted. Much of our work has been supporting local NGOs that have had to scale up at a fast pace in response to the increased demand for assistance.
Our work in Ukraine has involved:
